Mes: febrero 2022

Sports as we know it today has come a long way. There were times when watching sports on television was considered a massive step forward in terms of technology. Fast forward 60 years, watching sports on television has become the most basic thing. Today we watch sports on the go on our mobile phones or any device with a screen and internet connectivity. Proud of how far we’ve come, aren’t we? Hopefully I can change your opinion on that by the end of this article.

What is sports all about? Sports is a bunch of people getting together to play a game with pre defined rules and a referee to ensure that these rules are adhered to during the passage of play. I am a sport lover and play sports all time. My love for tennis and soccer in particular cannot be defined. My issue when it came to technology and advanced analytics was with the game of soccer in particular. Soccer is such a beautiful game. The strategies that the coaching staff come up with and the way it is executed on field by the players, it actually is a thing of beauty. I was a soccer player myself (just an average one at that) and have been part of various teams. I know firsthand how strategies are built, how much thought goes into one single run of play.

Enter -> Advanced Analytics

Most of you would’ve seen the movie Moneyball. The movie was based on the book Michael Lewis wrote in 2003. It talks about how a jock turned luminary uses advanced statistics to gain a competitive edge over his better funded opponents. This book brought about a revolution is sports. Fans and boards of soccer clubs didn’t want to settle for subpar statistics or analytics anymore. What Moneyball did is, it took an old cliché – «sports are businesses» and made us move on to the next logical question – «how do we do things smarter?»

Now let’s talk about advanced analytics. Advanced analytics in today’s world plays a massive role in every business sector. Advanced analytics has been a boon for us. Moving from descriptive analytics to prescriptive analytics, we actually have come a long way. In various businesses, where the requirement is demanding, advanced analytics are of utmost importance.

When we look at soccer, its a game that does not require too much machine intelligence, it is a game that needs the human element. When you bring in analytics and technology and try to reduce the human element in the sports, it simply just crushes the spirit of the game.

Relying on analytics heavily killed the Premier Leagues long ball game and brought in the pressing, continual passing tiki-taka. Each league for that matter had its own style of play. The Premier League had the brash and brazen style of football that was termed «The way real men play football». There were beautiful long balls, harsh tackles but all the players just sucked it up, walked it off and it was all up to the referee on the pitch to penalize the offender or not. There were arguments and fights, the passion from the fans was crazy, that was the football that screamed of passion, when players got in the face of other players not fearing punishment. The Eric Cantona’s, the Ivan Genaro Gattuso’s, the Jaap Stam’s of the football world went missing soon enough and the diving and the biting began. Then there was the tiki-taka style of football that was played in the Spanish La Liga, the silky style of play that caught everyone off guard. The legendary Pep Guardiola and his army at Barcelona were the masters of the tiki-taka. There was Real Madrid who were always a star studded line-up with excessive parts of their play relying on lightning quick counters which most often than not left the opponents stunned. There was Manchester United who had their own brand of football being managed by the legendary Sir Alex Ferguson. That United team was a team of sheer grit and character. Each of these leagues had their own beauty and the teams had their own style of play.

When you bring in excessive technology and analytics, there emerge sorry technologies like VAR (Video Assistant Referees).

There are 3 stages as to how the VAR works:

Step 1

Incident occurs

The referee informs the VAR, or the VAR recommends to the referee that a decision/incident should be reviewed.

Step 2

Review and advice by the VAR

The video footage is reviewed by the VAR, who advises the referee via headset what the video shows.

Step 3

Decision or action is taken

The referee decides to review the video footage on the side of the field of play before taking the appropriate action/decision, or the referee accepts the information from the VAR and takes the appropriate action/decision.

Now the referee can consult with VAR for basically any doubts he wants clarified. What does this do?

• Removes the human element from the game.

• Takes up excess time and brings too many stoppages within the game, a game that was previously free flowing and continuous.

This makes it similar to Formula 1 racing. The analytics which brought about the fuel weight management systems and the numerous pit stops took the continuity out of the race and viewership reduced with the increase in technology. A pretty similar trend might occur in football if this implementation becomes mandatory.

The Positive Side of Advanced Analytics in Soccer:

Analytics are not all that bad in football. Let’s take the case of when Simon Wilson joined Manchester City in 2006. Simon Wilson was a consultant for an analytics startup called Prozone initially. He joined City to start a department of analytics and hired the best data analysts under him. He wanted to change the way how data was used by football teams. He saw that, after a defeat there was no introspection as to why they had lost and what needed to be done next time. City were a mid table club at that time. In September 2008, when the club was acquired by the Abu Dhabi United Group for Development and Investment, a private-equity outfit owned by a member of the Abu Dhabi royal family, the team suddenly found itself with the resources necessary to mount a challenge for the Premier League. Today, Wilson is Manchester City’s manager of strategic performance analysis. He has five departments under him, including the team of performance analysis, which is now led by a sports scientist named Ed Sulley.

After each match, the team’s performance data would be examined. The list is extensive. Line breaks (a rugby term), ball possession, pass success rates, ball win/loss time ratio were what used to be analyzed. «Instead of looking at a list of 50 variables we want to find five, say, that really matter for our style of play,» says Pedro Marques, a match analyst at Manchester City.

«With the right data-feeds, the algorithms will output the statistics that have a strong relationship with winning and losing.» Wilson recalls one particular period when Manchester City hadn’t scored from corners in over 22 games, so his team decided to analyze over 400 goals that were scored from corners. It was noticed that about 75 percent resulted from in-swinging corners, the type where the ball curves towards the goal. The next 12 games of the next season saw City score nine goals from corner.

Teams are investing heavily in analytics today and it is working in their favor. Look at where Manchester City are today, sitting atop the Premier League table and not being threatened at all. Look at Manchester United this season, their game has been such where their possession percentages are low but their goal conversions are high. The Manchester Derby on 7th April 2018 saw United have only 35% of the possession but they managed to trump City 3-2. Each team has their set of analysts who provide inputs as per the strength of the team.

Advanced analytics is like the coin Two Face in Batman has, «Heads you die, Tails you survive!»

It can reap crazy rewards from a team’s point of view but at the same time can disrupt the lovely game by bringing in unnecessary stoppages, replays and by taking the human element out of it. The numerous replays and the different angles, show the fans if the referee has made an error or not. Let the error happen, after all to err is human. Refereeing in soccer is not an exact science and it’s all real time. Let there be arguments about a decision, let the passion in the argument come through. Do you want to watch a football match like the El Classico or the Manchester Derby and sit with your bunch of friends and say «it was a very clean game, the best team won!» Hell NO! Don’t drive the passion out of soccer with technology and analytics. Let soccer be soccer and let technology stay away!

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Of all the ‘Big 4’ clubs, the season ahead should be most interesting for Chelsea. After all, they’ve got a new coach in Big Phil Scholari and it looks like they will also have a new-look squad as well. But can Roman’s Blue Army continue to compete at the very top?

As I write this article, no major names have exited Stamford Bridge but the likes of Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba might well end up somewhere else come the start of the season which would be a tremendous blow to Chelsea. These two players have been central to their success over recent seasons and keeping them would represent more of a coup than bringing in any of the global superstars Chelsea have been linked with. The reason is that they’re already tried and tested in the squad and in the Premiership and you know that they will do the business over the course of a season.

Last season saw some notable flops at Chelsea, most notably Florent Malouda who came in from Lyon and never really hit the heights that were expected of him. If you consider he was supposed to be a replacement for Arjen Robben, then it further highlights how disappointing Malouda actually was. A big plus for Chelsea though was the emergeance of Micheal Ballack as a true Premiership star. His first season was a let down with so many fans expecting big things from the German skipper, but particularly towards the end of last season he showed himself to be one of the top players in the league. If Chelsea can get a good season out of him, then it will make all the difference to their success.

Who do Chelsea need to bring in? Well, if they lose Drogba then they certainly need a forward to lead the line. It is possible that Chelsea could revert to a 4-4-2 system for the first time in many years if Big Phil does play the kind of attacking football we expect him to. If this is the case then two big name forwards might well be required depending on whether Anelka is up to the job. Deco is a name that has been heavily linked to Chelsea and his arrival would be a great coup for both Chelsea and the Premiership.

As much as I can see Chelsea football shirts regaining the gold Premiership badge by making the right signings and landing on their feet this year, I can also invisage them getting it totally wrong and slipping down the Premiership pecking order. If I had to make a prediction, I’d say they’ll finish third or fourth in the Premiership, but make a big impact on the European stage. However, I’m fully prepared to be wrong on this one.

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After losing the Player of the Year award (Ballon d’Or) to Lionel Messi for four consecutive years Cristiano Ronaldo won the accolade in 2013. This and the great start Ronaldo has made in the new season have livened up an old debate as to whether he is a better player than Messi.

The discussion has focused on a particular set of statistics, namely, goals. To the extent that the data can help us to hazard an educated guess about player performance, Messi is the better of the two at club and international levels.

However if goals are used as the criteria to compare players it is not sufficient to look only at the number of goals scored. You also have to break down the conversion rate into such things as whether the shots are from inside or outside the area, the goal expectation i.e. whether an average player would score given the chance presented and the quality of the opponents.

CLUB LEVEL

The findings of a recent mathematical study were published in the Washington Post which showed that in 2009 to 2013 Messi’s average chance quality (i.e. quality of chances created) was higher than Ronaldo’s. Ronaldo had more shots but were mostly from long distance and he only scored 30 goals from 587 such shots whereas Messi scored 28 goals from his 287 long distance shots. Messi was more efficient because a higher percentage of his shots were converted i.e. 9.75 % to 5.11%.

The study found that Messi is better at getting into goal-scoring positions since he had 29 danger zone shots (from inside the area) to Ronaldo’s 20.

Messi is also a better finisher. In the period 2009/10 through 2013/14 Messi averaged 40% more goals than expected goals compared to Ronaldo’s 20% (see WASHINGTON POST – Despite great season, Cristiano Ronaldo is not better than Lionel Messi; by Michael Caley, November 7, 2014).

Last season Ronaldo broke the norm and outscored Messi. This propelled him to win the Ballon d’Or in 2013. But this has to be looked at in light of the fact that Messi missed a part of the year through injury and when he resumed playing he almost caught up with Ronaldo’s tally of 31 by scoring 28 by the end of the 2013/14 season.

Also, in the current season Ronaldo has made a great start by scoring 12 non-penalty goals to Messi’s 7. A plausible explanation for this is not that Ronaldo is now a better player but it is attributed to the changing roles of both players at their respective clubs.

With the addition of Neymar and Luis Suarez on the flanks of Barcelona’s 4-3-3 formation Messi now plays a deep-lying playmaking role which has led to his goals trending down while his assists are going up. His goals per game fell from little under 1.50 in the season 2012/13 to 0.86 in 2014/15 while his assists in 2013/14 was little under 0.50 and rose to 0.86 in the current season.

At Real Madrid the trend was the opposite. With the recent addition of Gareth Bale and James Rodriques in the midfield Ronaldo is now more of a striker and less focused on distribution. He now takes more shots from inside the penalty area and in the current season his 12 non-penalty goals except for 2 were from inside the box. His goals per game rose from 1.00 in 2013/14 to 2.20 in 2014/15 while his assists in the same period fell from 0.25 to 0.17 (ESPN FC GLOBAL- Realigning Stars: Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo face changing roles; by Michael Cox, October 23, 2014).

INTERNATIONAL LEVEL

Messi has a better strike rate than Ronaldo. The all time stats for all competitions show that Messi has 44 goals from 95 caps (0.46 goals per game) whereas Ronaldo has 51 from 116 caps (0.43 goals per game) (INTERNATIONAL STATS – November 8, 2014).

World Cup – Messi also surpasses Ronaldo with 5 goals from 15 caps (0.33 goals per game) to Ronaldo’s 3 goals from 13 caps (0.23 goals per game) (INTERNATIONAL STATS etc.).

Messi’s record is very impressive. In 2014 he led Argentina to the final, was voted Man of the Match in 4 games (the most of any player in the competition) and won the Golden Boot as the best player of the tournament.

Contrary to what some critics say he was the most deserving of the latter award. He had the most impact on the competition as Argentina would not have progressed to the final without him. He was the joint highest goal scorer with 4 goals and assists, created the most chances, had the most successful dribbling runs, made the most deliveries into the box and produced the most through balls of any player.

In contrast, Ronaldo has a sorry record. He has only scored thrice and against weak opposition, namely, a penalty against Iran (2006), the sixth goal in a 7-0 win against North Korea in 2010 and a late goal against Ghana in 2014. In the last tournament his only real contribution was an assist against the USA.

QUALITY OF OPPONENTS

Messi has more career goals for club and country. He has a total of 420 goals in 564 games (or 0.74 goals per game) while Ronaldo has 449 goals in 702 games (or 0.63 goals per game).

The important difference is that the Argentine has more game changing goals and against stronger opposition. His goals are directly associated with winning titles in La Liga, Champions League victories, Olympic gold medal matches and Youth and Club World Cups.

For example, as at March 24, 2014 for Barcelona he has scored against the best teams namely, 21 against Real Madrid (Barcelona’s fiercest rival), 20 against league champion Atletico Madrid and 18 against Sevilla (most successful club in Andalusia). In the Champions League he has 12 against German teams, 8 against English teams and 5 against Italian teams. And in the World Cup 2014 he scored 4 match winning goals.

Ronaldo on the other hand has failed to score in decisive matches and succeeded in scoring multiple goals against weak teams not only with his club but with his country. For example, in the English Premier League for Manchester United he only scored 2 goals in 9 games against Liverpool (United’s fiercest rival) and scored 1 goal in 15 games against stalwart Chelsea.

In the Champions League for United he failed to net in his first 26 games and although he scored in the final in 2014 for Real Madrid he had little impact in the other final in which he played in 2009 in a 2-0 loss to Barcelona.

In Spain in his first 9 games against Barcelona (Real Madrid’s main rival) he scored just 3 goals.

In the World Cup he has a sorry record which was discussed above and in the European Championship he has 6 goals against minnows Greece, the Czech Republic and a weak Holland team and underperforms against strong teams like Germany and Spain.

All in all the stats show that Messi is the better player because he is better at getting into goal scoring positions, is a better finisher and is a more efficient goal scorer. Messi has an age advantage because he is 27 and Ronaldo is 29 and though it is likely that both will still be playing for a few more years the Argentine will have more time than Ronaldo to extend his record of achievements. In the meantime the debate goes on.

Victor A. Dixon

November 20, 2014

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Son of Maria Dolores dos Santos Aveiro and José Dinis Aveiro, Cristiano Ronaldo was born on February 5, 1985 in Funchal, Madeira, Portugal to the name Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro. His second name Ronaldo was given to him by his father, who was a great admirer of U.S. president Ronald Regan. The youngest of four children, Cristiano Ronaldo has three siblings; an older brother Hugo and two sisters; Elma and Liliana Cátia who works as a singer in Portugal by the stage name Ronalda.

The Portuguese footballer who plays for Barclays Premier League 2006-2007, 2007-2008 Champions and winner of the 2007-2008 Champions League; Manchester United. Wearing the number 7 shirt, he plays as a winger, a central attacker and as a second forward. His passion for football was seen as early as age three and by age six when he started primary school this passion became even more obvious. His football career started at age eight when he first played for an amateur team Andorinha, for which his father was the kit man. In 1995 at just ten years old, his reputation grew in Portugal, this saw the two top teams in Madeira, in CS Marítimo and CD Nacional showing a keen interest in signing the youngster. He signed for CD Nacional and after a title winning season; he went on a three day trial at Sporting who immediately signed him for an undisclosed sum of money.

While at Sporting the Portuguese winger trained at the club’s football factory, the Alcochete; where his skills were nurtured. Though his progression at the club was obstructed by his growth, Cristiano Ronaldo became the only player in the club’s history to represent the Under-16, Under-17, Under-18, B team and first-team all in the same season. He scored two goals on his debut for Sporting against Moreirense and featured in Portugal’s Under 17 team for the UEFA Under 17 Championships. His appearance for Portugal at these championships sparked the interest of Liverpool’s then manager Gérard Houllier at the age of 16 but Houllier refused to sign him because he was deemed too young.

However, in 2003 the winger caught the eye of Manchester United’s Alex Ferguson when Sporting beat Manchester United 3-1 in a match that marked the inauguration of the Alvalade XXI stadium in Lisbon. With the departure of David Beckham, Manchester needed a right winger and he was signed for a fee of £12.24 million, becoming the Manchester United’s first Portuguese player ever. The Portuguese winger made his first appearance for the Red Devils at Old Trafford in a 4-0 win. He scored his first goal for Manchester United in the 2004 FA Cup Final against Millwall FC, the winger also scored Manchester United’s 1000th goal in a 4-1 defeat to Middlesbrough in October 2005. At the end of the season, he had a tally of 10 goals and was voted by fans to be FIFPro Special Young Player of the Year 2005, an award he also won in 2006.

In the summer of 2006, the Portugal winger was at the center of a controversy with fellow Manchester United and England striker Wayne Rooney; when both teams met in the world cup quarter finals. The incident saw Rooney being shown a red card and the resulting elimination of England from the world cup on penalties; the last of which was taken by the winger. Despite the incident both players remained friends and in November 2006, he won the Barclays Player of the Month award again an award he also won in December 2006. He scored his 50th goal for Manchester United which proved to be the decisive goal that gave Manchester United their first Premiership title in four years against rivals Manchester City.

In April 2007, the Portuguese national signed a new five year deal worth £120,000 a week, making him the highest paid player in Manchester United’s history. Among his accolades, the Portuguese footballer won the PFA Players’ Player of the Year, the PFA Young Player of the Year awards, the PFA Fans’ Player of the Year, the Football Writers’ Association Award and 2007 Portuguese Footballer of the Year at the end of his 2006-2007 season at Old Trafford.

Cristiano Ronaldo’s 2007-2008 season for the Barclays Premier League Champions saw him exceeding George Best’s forty year old record for the most goals scored by a midfielder in a season, at 32 goals by scoring 42 goals in all competitions helping Manchester United to back to back Premiership titles and the coveted UEFA Champions League title. Ronaldo who also placed third in the FIFA World Player of the Year awards in 2007 will be looking to place first in the same awards this year as he has proven to be the best player on the planet, with this season’s stellar performances. Cristiano Ronaldo however had a very disappointing Euro 2008 campaign with Portugal, which saw him scoring only one goal for his country that was eliminated by Germany in the quarter finals. He has also been linked to a lucrative transfer deal worth approximately EUR100 million euros to La Liga giants Real Madrid.

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The history of Nigeria’s football will not be complete without mentioning the contribution of goalkeeper Peter Rufai. The 47 years old former Stationary Stores of Lagos shot stopper made history in 1986 when he became the first Nigerian goalkeeper to move out of the shore of the country in pursuit of his professional career. He was signed by AS Dragon F.C of Benin Republic.

The quiet spoken Rufai is vastly traveled having played for Belgian club sides- Lokeren and Beveren before making a surprise move to Go Ahead Eagles of Holland in the 1993-1994 where he got selected to feature for Nigeria at the 1994 African Nations Cup hosted by Tunisia. He helped Nigeria lift the coveted trophy for a second time after defeat of Zambia in the final.

His performance at the African Nations Cup earned him a subsequent call-up to the Nigeria squad that played in the 1994 FIFA World Cup hosted by the United States of America. As both captain and goalkeeper of the team, he succeeded in ensuring Nigeria gave a commanding performance at her first World Cup outing. The team got to the round of 16, before succumbing to the more experienced Italians who were inspired by Roberto Baggio. The match eventually ended 2-1 in favor of the Italians.

Peter Rufai who was fondly called «Dodo Mayana» by his teeming supporters, returned to man the post for the Super Eagles in 1998 FIFA World Cup hosted by Spain. He could not however help the team scale through the round of 16, as they were battered by Denmark in a one-sided encounter played at the Stade de France. Dodo Mayana watched helplessly as the Danes put four goals behind him.

That match was incidentally his very last international outing for the senior National team before he eventually called it quit. His best ever performance were in the color of Spanish La Liga side- Deportivo La Coruna, where he made a name for himself despite been a back-up to Cameroonian goalkeeper- Jacques Songo’o for two consecutive seasons.

Peter Rufai presently lives in Nigeria, where he organizes football clinics in selected cities to help discover talented goalkeepers. He will be best remembered as one of the best goalkeepers Nigeria ever had, having earned the respect of fellow players and the Confederation of African Football who named him the 10th best CAF Best Goalkeeper of the century. It is noteworthy to mention that Rufai is the only Nigerian Goalkeeper so mentioned by the African Football body.

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